The Torch’s first official Remain party poll tracker has been released today, showing the Liberal Democrats surging ahead, with the Greens languishing behind, and Change UK The Independent Group failing to break through. The tracker will be updated regularly as new polls are released, and analysis given below.
The figures are based on the average of the past month’s polls for the European Parliament elections in May, and yielded the following figures, with changes given from the 2014 vote share achieved by each party:
Liberal Democrats – 9.0% (+2.4)
Green Party – 7.3% (-0.6%)
CUK-TIG – 6.3% (N/A)
The Lib Dems have increased their vote share significantly, almost by half since the 2014 elections. Added to recent polling revealed by The Torch that they appeared to be leading in London, and significant victories over the Greens almost everywhere in every set of elections since Brexit (including the 2017 general election, 2017 local elections, and 2018 local elections), the Lib Dems are giving significant evidence that they are the strongest pro-Remain party, amidst fears that voting for different parties could split the pro-EU vote.
The Green Party will be disappointed with their recent polling, showing a decline from their position in 2014. Added to other woes such as concerns over their South West lead candidate, Molly Scott Cato, appearing to support alternative medicine and witch doctors, analysts are increasingly of the opinion that 2014 represented the peak of Green support.
“The Greens are at risk of losing seats and potentially seriously fragmenting the Remain vote,” said one source. “Evidence is mounting that the Liberal Democrats are the best choice for pro-EU voters, and the Greens are finding it difficult to grapple with that – particularly considering their almost anonymous leadership team and absolute failure to break through at any other election.”
Change UK – The Independent Group
CUK-TIG have had a very difficult launch, with numerous candidates stepping down due to racism, and others being accused of transphobia and homophobia. Coupled with their failure to enter into an electoral alliance with the Liberal Democrats, and the leak of a document showing their antagonistic attitude towards them, many have been in open revolt against CUK-TIG, and are switching to give their support to the Liberal Democrats instead.
In sum, then, the Liberal Democrats appear to be riding high, with the other pro-Remain parties not doing so well. Based on the results above and taking into account known regional variations, The Torch makes the following projection for MEP numbers for the pro-Remain parties as the numbers stand:
Lib Dems – 6 MEPs (East, London, NW, SE, SW, West Midlands)
Greens – 1 MEP (SE)
CUK-TIG – 0 MEPs