The latest polls for the European Parliament election on 23rd May have been published, with the latest two notably being done after the local elections, which saw the Liberal Democrats surge by 704 councillors and 10 councils, and the Green Party gain seats across the country also.

Taking an average of these post-local election polls, the Liberal Democrats appear to have leapt ahead with 12% (+4% on the last tracker), with the Greens slumping to merely 6% (-1%). Change UK The Independent Group For Change _ Now, however, are the worst off of the three pro-EU parties at 5%, after a string of campaign blunders including the failure to stand a candidate in the Peterborough by-election.

Putting the poll results through The Torch’s sophisticated MEP prediction model for England, which factors in regional variation based on how well parties overperformed or underperformed in each region compared to the 2014 national European Parliament election result, and how well opinion polls over/underperformed in each region compared to the average of the final five European Parliament opinion polls in 2014, the following figures are obtained:

This leads to the shocking projection that the Liberal Democrats will achieve the same number of MEPs as the Conservatives, in what would be a major boost to the pro-EU movement across the country, and a major blow to the Conservative government. Indeed, according to The Torch’s model, a shift of 0.7% from the Green Party or Change UK to the Liberal Democrats in the South West would enable them to take the final seat there from the Brexit Party, and beat the Conservatives in terms of MEP numbers.

This projection will lead to joy in the Lib Dem camp, who have portrayed themselves as the largest pro-EU party, and focus Remain minds on tactical voting to ensure that the Conservatives finish fourth overall.